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CA prison population plan raises questions
By sbsun.com
Published: 05/27/2011

With the clock about to start ticking on clearing more than 30,000 inmates from California's prisons, state officials appear to be relying on a plan that is replete with question marks.

Gov. Jerry Brown and leaders of the prison system are pinning their hopes on a so-called "realignment" proposal that would shift the majority of low-level, nonviolent inmates from the state prison system - such as California Institution of Men and California Institution for Women in Chino - to the county jails - such as West Valley Detention Center in Rancho Cucamonga.

The governor signed legislation this spring that would put the reforms in place, but they cannot go into effect until the state finds a way to pay for the dramatic move, perhaps the biggest question mark of all amid California's budget crisis.

The Brown administration is kick-starting the plan as a result of this week's U.S. Supreme Court ruling, which left intact federal court orders requiring California to rid its overcrowded prisons of tens of thousands of inmates within the next two years.

But while even prisoner rights advocates express optimism about aspects of the governor's plan, simple math has many experts questioning whether it will satisfy the demands of the sweeping court order. And there is no time to waste: prison officials must submit a plan on June 6 to the three-judge panel overseeing the prison overcrowding case, forcing the state to get cracking on clearing those prison cells.

If the state falls short, at some point judges may simply order nonviolent prisoners to be released.

"The later you start, the harder it is to get to your number," said Ernie Galvan, a lawyer for state prison inmates.

For one thing, there are serious doubts the state's 58 county jail systems have the space to absorb the massive influx of new inmates expected to be diverted over time from the state prison system.

The numbers fluctuate, but the state's sheriffs' association and prison leaders say there are about 12,000 open jail beds across California, about a third of the space needed to comply with the federal court mandate.

A March study of the governor's plan by the San Francisco-based Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice found that far less than half of the state's county jails have space to take on state prison inmates, suggesting California could ultimately trade overcrowded state prisons for overcrowded county jails.

Indeed, as of several years ago, at least 15 county jail systems were under court-ordered inmate population caps of their own to ease overcrowding.

As one legislative staffer put it this week, "Are they simply kicking the can down the road?"

And there is another math problem.

The governor's plan hinges on paying the counties to take on the new responsibilities which, despite some projected long-term savings in the state prison budget, will cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Brown plans to fund the shift for the first five years through extensions of sales tax increases and vehicle license fees that depend on voter approval. And he has pledged to make sure there is a "constitutionally protected" way of paying the counties in the future. But he has yet to find a way to appease Republican opposition to increasing tax revenues.

"We believe that if the governor wants to fund this realignment he can with the extra money coming in," said Assemblyman Curt Hagman, R-Chino Hills, referring to $6 billion in unexpected revenue in his May budget revision.

"With the Supreme Court decision this week, now he's saying he needs the $55 billion to fund public safety. He really doesn't have a plan for the extra money. He just wants to raise a bunch more money to put the majority toward health and human services issues.

Hagman added that he thinks Brown is getting desperate.

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